* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 59 56 49 40 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 59 56 49 40 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 62 59 56 53 46 38 33 30 29 32 36 40 SHEAR (KT) 23 27 29 33 39 30 31 28 22 10 12 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 9 6 7 5 2 2 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 214 218 210 196 194 206 202 204 218 242 271 269 250 SST (C) 26.1 25.4 25.1 24.7 23.8 20.9 19.7 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 121 115 113 110 104 87 79 76 80 85 88 91 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 110 109 106 98 80 72 68 71 74 77 79 80 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.3 -51.3 -50.4 -50.3 -50.6 -51.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 44 41 37 30 27 22 25 29 33 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 31 28 26 24 26 24 22 22 19 19 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR -8 17 20 35 42 30 5 -20 1 43 85 97 93 200 MB DIV 83 116 62 25 71 60 69 12 8 1 0 4 10 LAND (KM) 1625 1513 1414 1381 1436 1704 1579 1375 1308 1275 1183 1096 1031 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.2 34.7 36.5 38.2 41.5 43.5 43.8 42.4 40.7 39.0 37.4 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.0 50.8 47.5 43.7 39.9 33.0 28.6 26.1 25.1 24.2 22.9 21.6 20.4 STM SPEED (KT) 30 31 33 35 33 25 14 7 8 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 27 CX,CY: 22/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -16. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -25. -36. -43. -49. -52. -53. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)