* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/09/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 57 61 61 58 54 47 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 35 31 36 40 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 30 30 28 33 38 32 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 15 13 11 15 18 20 25 29 36 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 0 -3 -3 0 -6 -8 -5 -6 -4 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 137 151 163 174 166 159 122 126 146 165 170 168 170 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.1 28.7 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 161 158 156 153 156 161 167 165 152 145 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 152 153 150 147 145 148 154 159 154 140 133 128 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 9 7 9 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 62 61 59 60 50 48 49 45 46 49 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 44 43 44 43 43 32 28 23 6 -6 -19 -32 -31 200 MB DIV 31 43 78 88 86 67 36 67 57 56 46 35 26 LAND (KM) 270 229 188 135 86 -20 -38 34 54 -95 -107 -100 -143 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.5 17.9 17.7 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.2 81.5 82.0 82.4 83.4 84.6 86.1 87.7 89.1 90.5 91.6 92.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 60 63 67 17 4 31 80 15 66 100 0 0 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 32. 36. 36. 33. 29. 22. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/09/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/09/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)