* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 46 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 46 37 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 53 50 46 39 32 27 25 26 27 29 31 SHEAR (KT) 23 29 32 42 42 42 37 27 18 16 24 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 7 8 6 8 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 226 218 207 200 208 219 222 222 243 249 246 228 229 SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.0 22.7 20.2 19.6 19.9 20.9 21.9 22.8 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 110 105 96 83 77 77 82 86 90 91 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 108 105 100 89 75 69 69 72 76 78 77 77 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 -51.3 -50.8 -50.1 -50.5 -51.2 -52.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 43 47 44 42 39 27 26 24 23 25 25 32 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 24 24 24 23 24 23 22 20 18 19 19 20 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 29 33 24 2 -10 -16 37 83 91 84 70 200 MB DIV 131 60 33 63 79 42 43 14 0 11 9 9 16 LAND (KM) 1528 1441 1423 1470 1588 1757 1496 1336 1268 1250 1226 1164 1032 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.6 36.1 37.9 39.6 42.4 43.7 43.5 41.9 40.0 37.8 36.8 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.4 47.0 43.5 39.8 36.1 30.6 27.6 25.6 24.5 23.7 23.2 22.2 20.7 STM SPEED (KT) 32 32 33 34 29 19 9 7 9 11 9 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 33 CX,CY: 30/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -20. -21. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -14. -23. -32. -42. -49. -53. -57. -59. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)