* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/10/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 39 46 52 53 52 47 40 32 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 28 27 27 27 31 27 27 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 26 26 27 27 31 27 27 27 26 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 20 18 17 15 21 25 31 34 41 45 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -8 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 144 176 179 172 175 153 129 132 155 163 162 162 164 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.0 28.2 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 157 155 154 156 159 162 150 138 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 151 149 148 146 149 151 153 141 129 124 121 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 8 6 8 6 8 5 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 56 55 55 51 48 48 44 45 44 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 41 40 43 47 33 40 21 15 -3 -2 -17 -25 200 MB DIV 31 67 70 68 63 52 69 70 69 55 38 37 25 LAND (KM) 229 165 102 39 -21 -115 -75 -26 4 -138 -149 -13 114 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.0 15.8 15.4 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.8 82.3 82.9 83.4 84.7 86.1 87.6 88.9 90.3 91.6 93.0 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 64 57 13 4 29 0 0 93 0 0 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 27. 28. 27. 22. 15. 7. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/10/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)