* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 45 40 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 45 40 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 46 43 39 32 26 22 20 21 21 23 24 SHEAR (KT) 24 34 40 42 44 41 33 25 21 20 25 32 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 10 10 5 0 -2 -2 0 0 2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 225 209 206 210 213 222 222 226 242 251 240 229 219 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.0 22.9 21.6 20.2 19.7 20.4 21.6 22.3 22.5 22.8 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 104 97 89 81 77 80 85 87 87 89 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 98 89 81 73 69 71 74 75 75 76 80 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -50.6 -51.2 -51.6 -52.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 34 26 17 25 22 25 24 33 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 24 26 28 27 23 22 20 18 18 19 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 9 22 33 26 24 -9 -15 3 37 83 102 114 114 200 MB DIV 57 42 53 67 43 36 8 -1 -10 -1 6 4 12 LAND (KM) 1477 1440 1485 1583 1717 1641 1408 1295 1295 1235 1102 1070 1102 LAT (DEG N) 34.3 36.1 37.9 39.3 40.7 42.5 43.6 42.7 40.6 39.0 38.5 37.4 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 43.2 39.5 36.5 33.4 29.2 26.5 25.0 24.4 23.5 21.9 21.3 21.2 STM SPEED (KT) 33 35 31 27 23 15 8 9 10 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 33 CX,CY: 31/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -2. -3. -8. -13. -17. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -15. -25. -35. -45. -52. -57. -60. -60. -58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)