* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/10/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 47 47 45 40 33 25 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 24 16 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 22 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 15 14 13 18 22 30 33 37 46 49 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 -2 0 -3 -1 -4 -6 -8 -8 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 152 169 169 153 159 131 141 143 158 152 157 160 170 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 159 157 155 151 150 153 150 141 133 130 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 153 151 149 145 143 145 142 133 125 123 123 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 6 8 6 8 6 7 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 62 58 60 57 57 51 48 51 52 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 41 40 35 34 34 26 18 12 -7 -17 -22 200 MB DIV 61 61 69 66 62 73 79 68 50 60 53 30 34 LAND (KM) 227 162 97 27 -43 -184 -111 -56 -94 -147 -33 109 165 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.3 15.3 15.1 14.7 14.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.4 82.0 82.6 83.3 83.9 85.3 86.8 88.1 89.5 90.9 92.4 93.9 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 67 69 8 5 54 0 21 0 0 11 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -9. -15. -21. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 18. 22. 22. 20. 15. 8. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/10/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)