* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL172010 10/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 43 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 43 39 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 52 48 44 39 32 27 24 23 24 25 25 27 SHEAR (KT) 30 38 44 45 43 34 32 22 21 24 27 31 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 8 5 0 0 -4 -3 0 0 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 214 207 215 217 225 233 227 248 254 254 251 236 222 SST (C) 24.7 23.9 22.5 21.1 20.0 20.0 21.2 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.3 23.3 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 110 104 96 88 82 79 83 84 86 89 92 91 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 99 89 82 75 70 73 73 75 78 79 78 77 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.8 -50.3 -51.1 -51.7 -52.5 -53.7 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 47 43 40 38 28 24 18 21 20 24 39 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 21 22 22 20 20 19 19 17 18 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 22 23 18 -4 13 51 79 99 101 93 95 200 MB DIV 48 60 64 54 47 17 4 -14 4 0 3 7 21 LAND (KM) 1438 1502 1631 1762 1652 1355 1274 1241 1192 1122 1047 936 828 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 38.0 39.7 41.3 42.8 43.2 41.3 39.9 39.0 37.8 36.2 36.0 36.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 39.1 35.4 32.4 29.4 25.8 24.4 23.6 23.0 22.0 20.6 19.3 18.3 STM SPEED (KT) 34 34 31 27 20 10 9 6 6 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 39 CX,CY: 34/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -4. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -16. -26. -35. -44. -50. -56. -59. -58. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172010 OTTO 10/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172010 OTTO 10/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)