* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/10/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 40 48 56 58 56 53 46 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 29 37 45 40 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 29 34 38 36 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 12 7 9 11 8 17 17 24 21 34 39 43 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -4 -6 -7 -5 -9 -7 -8 -9 SHEAR DIR 149 135 150 150 134 126 130 151 164 161 175 172 174 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 157 155 156 161 163 164 158 151 146 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 155 154 150 149 149 153 153 152 145 138 134 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 9 6 8 6 6 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 59 56 57 54 54 54 54 56 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 40 31 26 26 8 17 0 -6 -5 2 -3 200 MB DIV 57 56 58 61 49 72 67 75 56 61 61 43 27 LAND (KM) 249 194 136 70 10 -28 63 127 -10 -137 -124 -144 -184 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.7 17.9 17.7 17.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.6 82.0 82.6 83.1 84.3 85.7 87.0 88.3 89.5 90.5 91.3 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 68 68 35 4 1 81 60 100 5 0 0 0 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -4. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 15. 23. 31. 33. 31. 28. 21. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/10/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)