* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/10/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 62 61 57 52 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 53 38 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 47 46 35 29 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 7 3 10 9 16 20 24 33 38 37 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 4 0 -1 -2 -8 -5 -6 -8 -11 -7 SHEAR DIR 90 120 138 132 119 115 143 168 166 172 166 170 165 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 158 156 158 163 158 154 155 159 162 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 156 155 152 149 151 153 145 139 139 143 147 143 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 7 9 7 8 7 7 4 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 62 62 63 63 57 60 53 56 57 60 60 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 38 27 19 19 16 18 6 1 14 6 7 200 MB DIV 72 71 73 41 61 66 82 80 64 64 56 40 37 LAND (KM) 273 213 161 96 54 64 183 95 -15 -39 -63 -95 -158 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 16.4 17.5 18.3 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.6 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.3 81.7 82.3 82.9 84.3 85.6 86.7 87.7 88.4 88.8 89.1 89.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 8 8 9 7 6 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 62 62 44 3 3 71 90 111 47 79 0 100 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 0. -5. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 26. 34. 37. 36. 32. 27. 21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/10/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/10/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)