* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/11/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 53 58 59 57 54 50 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 46 46 32 28 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 33 30 28 27 27 27 29 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 13 14 21 24 30 34 35 32 33 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -8 -4 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 146 154 157 141 135 156 169 157 159 160 165 165 173 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 153 154 155 153 151 149 150 142 136 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 142 145 145 144 139 136 136 139 132 127 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 4 5 4 6 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 59 54 56 55 55 56 56 57 50 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 11 12 13 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 19 11 14 12 10 -3 15 31 33 27 -13 200 MB DIV 44 46 62 70 75 89 79 71 84 76 76 47 18 LAND (KM) 30 33 30 73 131 69 0 -105 -169 -140 -191 -86 28 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.0 18.0 18.3 18.3 17.7 16.7 15.7 15.1 14.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.7 84.4 85.2 85.9 87.1 88.2 89.2 89.8 90.1 90.8 91.7 92.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 18 87 95 110 7 0 0 0 13 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -12. -15. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 28. 33. 34. 32. 29. 25. 19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/11/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/11/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/11/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)