* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 56 61 67 73 74 71 67 61 57 54 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 56 61 67 73 74 71 67 61 57 54 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 53 58 63 69 71 71 70 70 68 64 61 SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 14 17 26 23 24 25 27 22 24 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -5 -9 -7 -8 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 138 153 141 140 155 181 181 191 194 188 197 195 209 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 155 159 158 146 144 148 151 151 150 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 143 147 152 149 132 127 131 132 131 129 130 132 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 59 51 53 53 48 53 58 52 51 47 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 6 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 5 7 13 8 0 8 18 9 2 -4 -3 200 MB DIV 61 84 87 87 90 66 55 49 34 28 37 38 46 LAND (KM) 36 42 88 184 137 43 65 113 153 156 139 150 145 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.6 20.3 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.4 85.0 85.7 86.3 87.0 86.6 85.9 85.3 85.0 85.2 85.2 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 5 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 4 36 84 91 104 91 88 98 104 109 103 105 107 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 34. 31. 27. 21. 17. 14. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)