* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL882010 10/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 58 58 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 58 58 56 54 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 38 40 42 43 43 44 44 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 14 18 24 24 25 26 26 24 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -7 -5 -6 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 138 151 138 140 150 172 176 178 179 191 190 185 189 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 153 156 158 149 143 142 143 147 151 153 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 145 149 147 135 126 124 125 129 133 135 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 7 5 6 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 58 51 53 53 52 53 54 51 49 48 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 6 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 6 9 15 14 0 9 19 12 5 0 1 200 MB DIV 62 85 87 88 91 74 53 57 37 26 42 43 53 LAND (KM) 30 30 78 162 144 62 21 27 56 103 153 193 188 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.3 18.0 19.1 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.4 85.1 85.7 86.3 86.9 87.2 87.1 86.8 86.3 85.7 85.2 84.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 5 3 1 2 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 18 86 91 104 81 54 68 87 97 106 111 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 3. -1. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 33. 33. 31. 29. 28. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL882010 TEST 10/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL882010 TEST 10/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL882010 TEST 10/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)