* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL982010 10/11/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 51 56 61 67 73 74 72 68 62 58 56 V (KT) LAND 40 46 51 56 61 67 73 74 72 68 62 58 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 52 58 62 69 71 71 71 71 69 66 63 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 14 17 24 23 24 24 27 22 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -9 -7 -8 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 138 151 141 140 154 172 178 186 189 188 197 192 189 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 153 157 158 148 145 148 151 153 150 152 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 146 150 149 133 128 131 132 132 130 131 132 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 6 8 7 7 6 7 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 54 58 53 53 54 48 54 58 53 51 49 47 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 7 6 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 10 15 6 8 14 9 0 8 18 10 2 -3 -2 200 MB DIV 62 85 88 88 90 68 55 49 34 28 38 39 48 LAND (KM) 30 30 77 173 138 45 71 117 163 167 150 160 156 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.5 20.2 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.5 20.4 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.4 85.0 85.7 86.3 87.0 86.6 85.9 85.3 85.0 85.2 85.2 85.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 5 3 3 2 0 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 2 19 85 90 104 92 90 99 105 110 105 106 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 21. 27. 33. 34. 32. 28. 22. 18. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL982010 INVEST 10/11/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL982010 INVEST 10/11/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL982010 INVEST 10/11/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)