* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/12/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 68 72 76 79 80 77 71 62 54 50 49 V (KT) LAND 55 62 68 72 76 79 80 77 71 62 54 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 55 65 74 80 83 84 80 76 74 71 67 63 61 SHEAR (KT) 10 14 15 15 21 22 29 29 28 29 29 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -6 -8 -5 -9 -6 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 155 157 168 172 174 184 175 185 188 191 197 210 208 SST (C) 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 156 158 156 150 143 144 148 151 151 150 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 149 150 147 138 125 125 130 132 131 131 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.7 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 9 8 6 7 5 6 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 56 50 51 51 47 50 54 52 48 46 47 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 6 5 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -6 3 0 -10 -3 0 19 -8 -13 -18 -7 200 MB DIV 76 59 68 70 70 58 65 52 16 16 32 34 30 LAND (KM) 74 133 205 134 69 63 80 113 160 171 174 200 228 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.2 20.2 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.2 19.9 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.1 85.8 86.3 86.8 86.7 86.5 86.1 85.5 85.2 85.4 85.3 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 2 1 2 2 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 89 81 96 103 91 88 92 100 105 108 108 112 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 9. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 22. 16. 7. -1. -5. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/12/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 7( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)