* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/12/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 74 77 80 80 76 69 63 55 51 49 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 74 77 80 80 76 69 63 55 51 49 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 72 76 79 79 77 74 71 68 64 60 58 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 20 21 24 25 26 28 22 25 22 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -3 -3 -4 -6 -7 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 139 169 174 184 185 191 185 191 202 207 201 209 230 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 158 154 148 142 144 144 146 150 153 153 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 147 142 133 125 126 124 126 131 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 48 47 53 52 47 40 39 41 40 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 10 11 10 10 10 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -14 4 9 -1 -8 7 15 10 -3 -18 -23 -14 200 MB DIV 59 75 73 73 67 74 54 28 10 33 45 27 27 LAND (KM) 144 231 183 136 89 38 93 89 61 33 34 70 78 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.4 85.8 86.2 86.5 86.6 86.0 85.6 85.3 84.8 84.1 83.6 83.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 5 3 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 80 93 104 104 95 75 78 77 84 94 109 112 111 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 16. 9. 3. -5. -9. -11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 19% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/12/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 6( 10) 7( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)