* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/12/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 73 75 76 74 70 65 59 51 47 46 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 73 75 76 74 70 65 59 51 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 73 75 75 75 73 71 68 65 61 57 54 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 21 21 19 27 27 29 26 28 27 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -5 -9 -8 -5 -5 -2 -4 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 172 176 192 198 201 186 197 199 207 206 220 219 233 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 152 148 143 142 143 146 149 152 151 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 147 139 134 127 125 124 127 129 132 130 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 9 7 7 7 5 6 5 5 4 6 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 47 47 50 53 52 47 42 44 43 44 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 7 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -21 0 0 -5 -13 17 16 13 -2 -10 -22 -17 -17 200 MB DIV 69 51 63 58 40 44 39 9 20 46 18 17 31 LAND (KM) 222 173 125 85 41 73 83 30 22 22 44 77 129 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.0 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.6 21.8 21.5 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.9 86.2 86.4 86.5 86.2 85.6 85.1 84.7 84.2 83.6 83.4 83.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 98 106 102 93 78 43 63 86 95 106 110 112 115 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 5. 0. -6. -14. -18. -19. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 95.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/12/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 5( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)