* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/12/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 87 85 82 74 67 59 50 42 34 28 26 V (KT) LAND 85 88 87 85 82 74 67 59 50 42 34 28 26 V (KT) LGE mod 85 91 92 90 87 81 76 69 61 54 48 43 40 SHEAR (KT) 19 25 26 26 26 31 35 41 34 36 34 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -10 -10 -7 -7 -9 -8 -10 -7 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 167 184 198 203 199 192 195 208 208 202 218 227 237 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 148 145 142 142 145 145 145 148 152 153 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 133 128 124 124 126 125 125 129 132 134 139 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 47 44 46 49 51 50 45 38 34 34 36 37 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -9 -18 -27 -20 8 3 -3 -29 -41 -41 -39 -21 200 MB DIV 69 71 51 20 37 39 16 20 26 25 14 4 28 LAND (KM) 171 143 98 73 62 82 62 30 61 45 0 45 127 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.6 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.5 21.8 21.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.1 86.2 86.3 86.3 86.1 85.4 85.1 85.3 85.1 84.3 83.9 83.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 4 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 99 99 89 81 71 55 65 80 77 82 92 100 106 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -23. -26. -26. -27. -28. -28. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. 0. -3. -11. -18. -26. -35. -43. -51. -57. -59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 87.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/12/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/12/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 5( 29) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)