* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/13/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 86 84 81 76 70 63 54 45 36 29 22 V (KT) LAND 85 87 86 84 81 68 58 46 37 34 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 91 89 86 83 63 49 38 38 35 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 25 27 29 33 35 31 27 32 33 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -9 -7 -7 -2 -5 -3 -2 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 175 195 206 197 200 207 204 226 227 235 242 256 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 145 145 146 152 150 147 145 143 140 140 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 130 128 130 137 134 131 128 124 120 121 124 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 6 7 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 48 47 51 53 53 45 37 40 39 32 32 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 7 8 9 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -19 -21 -4 18 16 13 -3 -10 -25 -24 -39 -35 200 MB DIV 62 41 29 43 31 32 24 5 18 2 0 8 23 LAND (KM) 147 107 82 108 73 -10 -14 -34 -30 0 56 56 61 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.4 22.3 22.8 22.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.1 86.1 85.8 85.5 84.2 82.6 81.1 79.8 79.0 78.8 78.2 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 5 5 7 7 7 5 3 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 99 91 70 66 60 55 1 104 108 0 34 20 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -23. -24. -23. -22. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -15. -22. -31. -40. -49. -56. -63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 77.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/13/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 10( 19) 8( 25) 0( 25) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)