* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/13/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 79 76 70 63 55 46 39 32 28 23 V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 79 76 62 54 43 35 31 29 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 85 85 83 81 80 68 66 46 37 32 29 28 28 SHEAR (KT) 25 26 28 30 30 33 35 33 32 27 28 32 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -9 -8 -7 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 190 201 198 201 206 202 214 228 228 235 245 252 254 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 146 148 151 150 146 145 144 143 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 130 128 130 134 134 128 127 125 122 122 121 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 52 53 52 56 54 48 39 33 35 32 31 35 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 8 7 5 3 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -30 -11 14 18 23 12 -13 -16 -23 -23 -29 -30 200 MB DIV 39 32 44 50 51 28 15 -6 9 -2 5 16 26 LAND (KM) 114 108 98 57 30 -11 -5 -37 -34 -30 -45 -30 0 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.9 21.5 21.8 22.0 22.3 22.7 22.7 22.3 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 85.9 85.7 85.4 85.0 84.0 82.5 81.3 80.4 79.9 79.7 79.6 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 6 7 5 4 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 93 82 68 70 83 39 1 92 105 108 111 111 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -23. -26. -26. -26. -24. -25. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. -30. -39. -46. -52. -57. -62. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 79.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/13/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 8( 17) 5( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)