* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/13/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 78 74 70 63 54 46 39 32 27 23 18 V (KT) LAND 85 82 78 74 70 63 54 40 34 31 29 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 85 83 81 79 77 73 68 48 38 33 30 32 30 SHEAR (KT) 26 29 30 29 31 35 37 36 33 32 25 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -8 -7 -7 -5 -5 0 -2 -3 -7 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 195 197 202 212 214 211 226 227 237 235 244 250 249 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 145 149 150 150 148 144 143 143 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 127 129 133 134 131 129 126 124 124 127 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 4 6 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 48 52 53 53 50 42 36 34 33 35 36 42 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -14 9 19 16 27 1 -15 -24 -11 -21 -11 -16 200 MB DIV 38 51 55 49 41 11 0 0 0 -2 5 12 37 LAND (KM) 93 108 83 59 33 32 4 -4 -7 -7 -8 26 31 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.2 23.0 22.8 22.4 21.7 21.4 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 86.0 85.8 85.6 85.0 84.4 83.0 82.1 81.1 80.1 79.5 79.6 79.7 80.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 7 7 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 74 66 57 77 71 33 25 0 0 0 56 84 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -8. -12. -16. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -17. -24. -28. -28. -28. -27. -27. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -22. -31. -39. -46. -53. -58. -62. -67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/13/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 6( 15) 4( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)