* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/13/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 66 63 56 48 42 35 30 27 24 22 V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 66 63 56 42 34 31 29 28 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 72 69 68 67 63 46 37 32 30 28 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 28 32 33 33 35 39 34 30 32 31 27 28 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -10 -5 -3 -3 0 0 -3 -4 -5 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 196 200 208 212 209 218 221 221 226 243 252 251 254 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 150 152 150 147 146 143 144 145 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 129 133 135 133 130 127 123 124 125 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 50 48 39 36 36 33 32 36 38 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 9 16 13 22 16 -4 -3 -2 -10 -7 -15 -15 200 MB DIV 71 66 57 44 34 15 7 28 11 11 33 38 49 LAND (KM) 98 67 53 35 15 4 -32 -39 -30 -24 -11 -8 -27 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 23.0 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.1 21.7 21.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.7 85.5 85.2 84.7 84.1 82.7 81.3 80.3 79.7 79.4 79.5 79.6 80.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 69 67 71 76 47 0 92 105 106 110 50 56 108 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -23. -26. -27. -27. -27. -27. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -19. -27. -33. -40. -45. -48. -51. -53. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/13/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/13/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)