* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/14/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 66 61 56 48 40 34 29 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 66 61 56 44 36 35 30 25 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 69 67 65 52 41 40 35 31 28 25 22 SHEAR (KT) 33 32 34 38 41 40 36 34 32 33 37 38 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -8 -5 -4 -3 -4 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 197 202 207 206 209 219 226 231 235 255 258 258 248 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 148 152 152 147 143 143 142 141 140 139 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 131 132 136 136 131 126 124 122 121 120 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -54.0 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 5 6 5 6 6 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 52 52 50 49 40 39 36 35 35 32 34 34 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 19 13 20 23 4 -12 -9 -6 -29 -32 -34 -29 200 MB DIV 60 48 45 30 20 -8 6 0 18 10 19 25 72 LAND (KM) 82 49 41 3 4 -22 -5 22 3 10 45 96 176 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.1 22.4 22.7 22.9 23.0 22.9 22.6 22.3 22.3 22.6 23.1 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 85.6 85.2 84.7 84.0 83.2 81.7 80.3 79.3 78.7 78.3 78.2 78.4 78.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 7 6 4 3 1 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 62 74 76 26 0 84 0 4 0 0 10 52 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -18. -26. -30. -31. -31. -31. -32. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -27. -35. -41. -46. -50. -56. -61. -66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/14/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)