* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/14/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 58 53 45 37 32 27 23 20 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 56 52 49 40 34 31 29 28 27 28 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 68 59 55 51 42 34 31 29 28 27 28 26 SHEAR (KT) 32 32 39 42 41 38 33 29 29 28 33 30 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -3 -1 -2 -3 0 -3 -4 -7 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 203 207 203 209 221 222 224 230 245 246 255 244 242 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 152 152 150 147 144 144 143 142 142 141 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 135 136 134 130 127 124 122 122 124 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 53 50 49 44 39 38 36 36 38 38 41 42 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 7 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 23 24 16 -7 -8 -2 -10 -11 -19 -18 -24 200 MB DIV 47 49 35 29 13 -5 9 7 14 25 27 48 72 LAND (KM) 53 35 -3 -19 -14 -38 -45 -34 -33 -22 0 37 122 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 22.8 22.7 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 22.5 23.2 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 85.2 84.7 84.1 83.4 82.6 81.2 79.9 79.4 79.3 79.3 79.5 80.0 80.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 7 7 6 4 2 1 1 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 71 78 15 1 1 104 108 110 110 109 0 25 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -27. -27. -28. -27. -28. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -12. -17. -25. -33. -38. -43. -47. -50. -53. -58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/14/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)