* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/14/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 46 42 34 29 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 46 43 33 30 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 52 49 41 36 32 30 28 28 27 30 27 SHEAR (KT) 35 40 43 44 41 39 31 30 29 30 29 42 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -4 -4 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 212 208 211 220 224 219 232 228 247 252 250 246 238 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 149 145 143 144 144 143 144 144 143 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 135 135 132 129 126 126 123 123 124 126 125 124 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 46 40 37 33 34 31 34 35 36 37 44 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 25 15 -6 -10 -12 -1 -9 -5 -11 0 10 200 MB DIV 34 30 26 14 -12 9 5 11 14 30 41 69 78 LAND (KM) 33 13 10 0 0 -1 -22 -31 -28 -35 -37 4 110 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 22.9 23.0 23.1 23.2 22.9 22.2 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.3 23.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 83.7 83.0 82.3 81.5 80.2 79.5 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.8 80.3 80.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 1 1 1 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 71 27 0 13 23 0 110 99 110 110 108 0 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. -43. -46. -50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/14/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)