* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/14/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 41 36 32 26 23 22 22 21 20 19 17 V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 40 36 32 33 32 31 31 30 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 44 40 36 32 33 30 29 28 28 26 23 SHEAR (KT) 40 40 36 35 35 30 25 23 22 25 32 37 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 -4 -7 -6 -3 -5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 205 215 218 224 221 221 222 237 242 248 242 240 228 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 150 149 147 145 146 150 151 150 151 152 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 132 132 131 127 127 131 132 129 133 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 46 40 38 36 35 33 30 31 41 49 56 64 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 10 8 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 20 17 -4 -9 -2 3 -1 2 15 33 41 50 200 MB DIV 43 36 38 12 3 9 1 23 33 35 62 92 99 LAND (KM) -6 -10 -18 -27 -44 -40 11 61 104 114 124 98 44 LAT (DEG N) 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.8 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.2 82.8 82.3 81.6 80.9 79.6 79.9 79.8 79.5 79.4 79.8 80.3 80.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 6 7 6 3 2 3 2 0 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 84 103 111 77 87 90 91 91 90 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -6. -3. -1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -24. -27. -28. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/14/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/14/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)