* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * PAULA AL182010 10/15/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 32 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 37 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 38 36 31 27 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 40 35 33 35 36 33 32 33 34 36 48 52 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 -1 0 -1 -3 -6 -4 -3 -4 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 213 225 225 222 222 236 241 256 260 261 251 254 N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 144 143 140 139 141 139 141 141 140 139 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 129 127 124 121 122 118 122 123 123 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 38 37 35 33 30 28 31 33 37 38 44 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 -14 -16 -20 -24 -13 -29 -28 -30 -21 -32 N/A 200 MB DIV 49 41 15 8 5 -8 7 9 8 28 39 33 N/A LAND (KM) -20 -9 -1 41 82 89 32 33 32 29 103 172 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.0 22.8 22.1 22.0 22.1 22.4 23.2 24.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 81.1 80.2 79.4 78.6 77.7 77.5 77.3 77.5 78.1 78.6 79.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 3 2 0 2 4 5 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 0 0 12 57 40 11 22 11 1 55 40 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -17. -24. -28. -32. -36. -39. -43. -48. -52. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/15/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/15/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/15/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)