* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * PAULA AL182010 10/15/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 27 25 21 19 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 24 25 26 24 25 DIS SHEAR (KT) 35 36 34 36 37 36 27 29 30 31 40 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 230 228 227 229 234 240 248 252 256 255 253 250 N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 142 142 140 141 145 145 148 149 148 145 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 126 124 122 124 128 126 130 132 132 128 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 35 34 34 32 31 32 38 46 53 57 63 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -11 -14 -21 -19 -11 -7 -9 -15 -1 0 2 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 9 5 7 4 -3 24 27 32 51 65 57 N/A LAND (KM) 0 9 45 59 69 51 -32 -22 -11 -11 -10 -33 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 22.9 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.3 21.3 20.9 20.8 21.0 21.6 22.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.0 79.2 78.7 78.1 77.5 77.3 77.2 77.6 78.3 79.2 80.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 4 1 3 4 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 21 34 28 34 57 7 6 3 28 109 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -18. -23. -26. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -25. -29. -33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182010 PAULA 10/15/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182010 PAULA 10/15/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182010 PAULA 10/15/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)