* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/17/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 33 44 53 62 69 75 79 82 83 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 24 25 27 38 47 55 60 64 67 69 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 22 23 25 33 40 49 60 73 81 83 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 9 11 11 13 7 7 5 15 18 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 80 109 107 113 113 109 99 83 50 62 79 71 65 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 139 136 131 130 130 130 130 128 127 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 140 137 133 128 125 123 122 122 121 122 120 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 3 3 700-500 MB RH 79 83 83 82 84 82 81 75 72 70 70 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 7 6 5 4 5 5 7 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 54 58 55 55 67 54 59 61 60 59 68 62 200 MB DIV 47 55 37 57 78 81 57 25 10 24 20 35 44 LAND (KM) 52 68 7 -35 -39 -4 77 164 199 229 284 322 415 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 10.5 10.1 9.3 8.2 LONG(DEG W) 80.8 81.7 82.5 83.3 84.1 85.5 86.6 87.4 87.9 88.2 88.5 88.7 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 2 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 53 38 19 15 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 33. 42. 49. 55. 59. 62. 63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/17/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)