* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/17/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 35 43 53 60 66 72 77 81 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 23 25 26 26 35 41 46 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 21 25 26 26 34 42 52 63 72 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 11 12 13 12 7 4 3 4 8 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 120 131 134 129 121 124 137 138 138 118 80 69 63 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 147 144 139 137 137 136 136 135 133 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 148 147 144 141 133 129 128 126 127 128 128 126 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 82 82 80 79 74 74 71 76 78 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 57 56 62 62 65 57 58 58 74 84 81 200 MB DIV 46 38 51 76 78 74 42 33 32 46 54 69 89 LAND (KM) 149 116 76 21 -34 -62 -25 -4 10 48 119 236 359 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.1 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.4 12.3 11.7 10.8 9.9 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 82.0 82.8 83.5 84.2 85.5 86.3 87.0 87.3 87.7 88.0 88.6 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 1 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 63 63 45 0 31 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 12. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 15. 23. 33. 40. 46. 52. 57. 61. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/17/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)