* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/17/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 36 44 52 57 62 65 69 74 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 36 34 29 28 27 27 30 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 22 24 27 26 27 27 27 27 30 35 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 12 12 11 10 11 11 10 6 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 5 2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 105 128 135 140 149 160 195 216 205 203 184 98 64 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 161 161 159 152 148 145 145 144 141 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 159 159 156 147 139 135 134 134 134 137 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 8 6 8 6 8 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 78 75 77 76 75 78 76 78 72 72 74 75 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 41 43 44 42 45 52 31 44 38 63 78 93 96 200 MB DIV 31 46 49 68 54 51 64 75 71 70 64 90 44 LAND (KM) 238 257 289 331 249 92 -46 -100 -120 -158 -152 17 211 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.6 14.3 14.7 14.8 14.4 13.5 12.4 11.2 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 79.0 79.7 80.5 81.2 82.6 83.7 84.5 85.1 85.6 86.3 87.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 4 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 67 68 64 59 59 8 28 0 0 0 13 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 5. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 16. 24. 32. 37. 42. 45. 49. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/17/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)