* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/17/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 50 53 56 60 66 70 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 37 44 50 37 31 28 27 35 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 28 32 34 29 28 27 27 33 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 11 9 13 14 16 14 15 9 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 6 0 1 0 -4 -2 -1 -2 5 5 4 SHEAR DIR 92 115 126 130 127 183 207 222 217 212 181 141 79 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 162 162 160 158 150 148 147 147 149 144 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 161 161 158 154 143 137 134 135 140 140 142 140 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 77 76 77 78 75 72 68 67 66 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 45 44 39 33 22 29 35 57 69 79 92 200 MB DIV 62 77 79 66 51 56 61 57 64 62 66 77 53 LAND (KM) 241 273 328 286 189 43 16 0 -8 -70 -156 -5 180 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.5 15.4 15.8 15.8 15.2 14.2 13.2 12.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.5 79.3 80.1 80.9 81.6 82.8 83.6 84.2 84.8 85.6 87.0 89.0 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 7 5 3 4 7 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 66 68 60 59 60 2 1 1 0 0 18 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 24. 30. 33. 36. 40. 46. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 62.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/17/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/17/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)