* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/18/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 30 37 43 48 50 51 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 26 26 27 34 29 27 27 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 22 24 26 30 27 27 27 30 31 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 13 13 10 16 19 19 18 20 17 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 1 0 1 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 7 8 SHEAR DIR 113 118 124 135 164 190 214 214 215 214 198 187 154 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 156 152 148 146 146 146 148 146 141 141 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 155 151 146 141 136 133 132 137 141 139 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 6 8 7 9 6 7 4 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 76 79 76 73 67 66 65 64 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 35 36 43 45 26 32 21 42 64 85 83 84 200 MB DIV 82 83 54 42 51 55 62 54 58 50 61 24 44 LAND (KM) 315 232 141 60 -10 -30 -2 5 -42 -145 -46 116 316 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.1 13.5 14.0 14.4 15.2 15.8 15.9 15.5 14.5 13.3 12.3 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 80.6 81.4 82.1 82.7 83.3 84.1 84.4 84.6 84.9 85.8 87.5 89.7 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 5 2 2 5 8 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 59 59 56 5 0 51 0 0 78 0 21 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 13. 21. 26. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/18/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/18/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/18/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)