* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/18/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 43 42 41 40 43 45 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 43 42 41 40 32 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 31 33 34 34 34 34 36 36 30 28 SHEAR (KT) 8 14 18 24 26 28 25 24 24 24 22 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 -1 0 1 3 -2 -4 -6 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 129 155 181 201 211 218 227 219 234 226 219 192 193 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 146 149 152 151 151 151 147 148 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 137 135 135 137 137 135 135 137 137 142 149 151 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 5 8 7 9 7 9 6 8 5 700-500 MB RH 73 70 74 71 69 64 58 58 52 55 52 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 45 45 30 19 13 -8 17 13 32 63 81 69 200 MB DIV 64 68 55 47 37 42 36 48 24 31 46 51 42 LAND (KM) 75 68 80 106 150 255 305 322 269 155 6 -35 -98 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.1 18.0 18.3 18.2 17.5 16.6 15.9 15.4 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.0 83.5 83.7 83.8 83.5 83.0 82.5 82.4 83.0 84.5 86.7 89.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 2 2 4 7 9 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 26 89 89 105 108 106 107 63 0 83 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 355 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 18. 20. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/18/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/18/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/18/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)