* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/19/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 32 34 38 43 45 47 50 56 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 34 38 43 45 41 32 28 31 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 32 34 32 29 27 31 36 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 16 14 13 18 19 16 11 5 8 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 1 5 1 0 -1 -1 2 0 4 0 SHEAR DIR 131 176 191 214 212 224 204 222 197 184 98 143 126 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 145 146 147 148 148 147 146 147 146 150 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 134 134 133 131 133 136 139 143 145 150 127 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -54.2 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 8 8 7 9 7 8 5 7 4 7 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 69 67 59 58 57 59 61 66 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 15 12 19 20 -6 15 25 50 67 83 70 73 200 MB DIV 64 14 7 7 20 38 53 40 35 38 35 27 36 LAND (KM) 64 83 135 165 201 249 223 138 -13 -133 -77 71 192 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.2 17.6 17.3 16.6 15.6 14.6 13.8 13.3 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.6 82.8 83.0 83.0 83.0 82.8 82.8 83.2 84.2 85.9 88.1 90.7 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 4 3 1 3 6 8 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 2 3 34 74 96 103 100 74 0 0 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 20. 22. 25. 31. 32. 33. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/19/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)