* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/19/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 38 40 43 48 56 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 31 34 38 40 43 33 29 27 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 29 30 27 27 27 33 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 23 23 20 21 16 16 5 4 6 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 2 1 -1 -3 -1 2 6 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 181 187 202 208 219 214 216 196 190 143 62 95 126 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 149 150 151 151 152 148 146 148 148 149 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 135 135 135 138 138 138 144 146 149 130 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 7 7 7 9 8 9 7 9 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 63 60 58 56 51 52 50 51 55 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 27 22 3 -2 15 27 48 67 96 92 106 92 200 MB DIV 30 23 24 11 23 41 34 26 38 37 26 33 15 LAND (KM) 123 175 231 266 301 324 285 180 34 -94 -147 -28 68 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.0 17.4 16.6 15.8 15.0 14.4 14.1 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.2 83.1 82.9 82.7 82.2 82.1 82.7 83.8 85.4 87.6 90.2 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 3 2 2 4 6 7 10 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 77 93 101 105 105 103 105 44 3 0 20 23 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 23. 31. 35. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/19/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)