* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/19/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 44 45 45 46 53 56 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 39 41 44 45 45 46 45 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 35 36 36 38 40 45 51 33 29 SHEAR (KT) 12 20 22 22 19 22 13 8 6 3 6 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 0 0 -1 0 0 1 4 2 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 194 210 213 222 224 227 241 225 217 262 54 167 184 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.5 28.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 151 152 152 152 151 151 152 161 140 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 137 135 134 134 137 139 142 146 158 136 122 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 9 8 9 7 9 8 10 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 59 56 54 50 44 45 48 48 49 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 7 4 10 18 23 35 52 77 77 71 61 200 MB DIV 34 25 17 27 31 24 14 12 32 24 24 14 29 LAND (KM) 197 247 297 325 352 363 310 217 126 71 -3 -203 -82 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.6 18.8 18.8 18.3 17.6 17.0 16.4 16.2 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.3 83.2 83.2 83.1 82.8 82.9 83.4 84.6 86.4 88.8 91.4 93.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 1 1 3 5 8 10 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 91 98 101 100 98 96 100 94 80 65 1 7 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 23. 26. 27. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/19/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/19/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)