* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/20/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 39 41 41 44 50 52 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 39 41 41 44 34 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 32 33 33 33 34 35 38 42 34 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 21 20 21 26 17 15 12 6 4 8 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 -1 -4 0 -3 5 9 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 198 210 212 222 217 228 223 213 213 332 175 165 189 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.3 29.0 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 151 152 151 149 150 151 157 152 132 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 135 135 134 135 135 140 144 153 149 126 119 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 10 8 12 700-500 MB RH 66 61 60 57 54 50 49 46 48 44 47 48 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 13 11 15 19 22 41 48 73 73 78 59 41 200 MB DIV 20 18 38 46 44 15 24 40 29 20 5 18 19 LAND (KM) 217 257 297 323 350 320 246 146 83 45 -122 -130 -103 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.7 18.3 17.7 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.3 16.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 83.4 83.3 83.2 83.1 82.9 82.7 83.0 84.0 85.5 87.6 90.1 92.6 94.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 3 4 7 9 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 94 99 101 101 98 99 99 82 82 51 0 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 14. 20. 22. 23. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/20/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)