* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 45 51 56 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 45 51 38 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 43 36 29 28 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 19 23 22 18 15 8 3 3 4 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -7 -2 3 7 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 208 213 213 203 209 222 206 201 246 51 78 149 172 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 27.7 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 153 152 153 151 149 152 156 154 133 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 135 136 135 136 137 139 145 152 151 128 118 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 59 55 50 48 45 48 49 51 52 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 9 10 8 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 9 17 26 30 35 39 53 70 82 75 63 66 200 MB DIV 32 44 53 60 39 39 37 44 33 29 16 16 30 LAND (KM) 261 298 335 349 364 338 269 167 78 45 -98 -129 -84 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.0 17.5 17.1 16.6 16.3 16.2 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.9 82.8 82.6 82.4 82.1 82.0 82.4 83.4 85.1 87.4 89.9 92.4 94.5 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 2 2 4 7 10 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 100 100 98 97 97 100 103 89 82 57 0 16 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 4 CX,CY: 1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 15. 21. 26. 29. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 98.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/20/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)