* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 56 61 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 44 50 36 30 28 31 30 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 36 39 31 28 27 31 37 SHEAR (KT) 14 13 17 16 14 17 10 10 4 12 14 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -5 -4 -4 0 -4 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 199 204 207 194 199 179 176 147 110 73 72 93 82 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 153 153 152 148 146 147 147 147 144 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 139 138 139 137 138 142 144 144 139 123 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 8 7 9 7 9 7 7 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 63 62 59 56 51 57 51 55 53 62 63 63 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 15 26 35 39 40 59 67 81 92 115 97 98 98 200 MB DIV 40 38 47 32 50 48 46 48 38 32 6 65 20 LAND (KM) 278 299 322 319 307 256 158 40 -108 -150 -63 16 84 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.6 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.6 14.9 14.4 14.0 13.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.3 82.0 81.8 81.6 81.7 82.4 83.5 85.2 87.3 89.5 91.4 92.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 7 10 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 102 101 101 99 97 64 8 3 0 20 27 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 20. 26. 31. 35. 36. 35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 100.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/20/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)