* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 10/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 45 52 59 62 61 62 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 35 29 28 30 30 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 33 30 28 27 27 35 41 45 SHEAR (KT) 11 17 17 16 14 16 11 4 15 17 19 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 2 -1 -2 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 188 205 189 196 193 177 117 108 61 68 79 90 91 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 149 148 147 145 144 146 145 146 148 136 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 134 135 135 135 137 142 141 143 143 129 118 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 8 700-500 MB RH 63 60 59 55 54 51 56 57 61 63 64 68 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 7 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 27 38 44 45 52 71 91 94 121 110 96 95 82 200 MB DIV 36 47 45 58 63 47 55 32 37 10 16 34 6 LAND (KM) 255 246 237 205 173 77 -49 -169 -79 7 111 170 226 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 15.7 15.0 14.3 13.7 13.2 12.9 12.8 12.7 LONG(DEG W) 82.2 82.1 82.0 82.2 82.3 83.0 84.1 85.6 87.5 89.3 91.1 92.4 93.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 9 9 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 91 81 56 15 8 2 49 0 19 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 15. 22. 29. 32. 31. 32. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992010 INVEST 10/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 10/20/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)