* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL192010 10/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 51 56 61 67 70 71 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 37 43 51 56 61 41 31 28 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 35 39 43 50 38 30 28 27 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 16 18 16 9 3 3 4 9 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 1 0 4 0 13 11 SHEAR DIR 199 199 204 191 185 208 190 294 31 66 131 135 183 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.1 27.9 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 154 155 153 151 149 152 157 153 135 127 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 136 137 139 139 139 139 145 152 147 126 116 112 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -53.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 9 8 9 6 8 7 10 9 12 700-500 MB RH 59 56 51 49 49 48 50 50 54 52 51 46 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 10 9 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 36 44 43 41 49 44 67 75 86 60 58 52 66 200 MB DIV 46 36 53 56 45 53 50 32 21 14 26 12 -23 LAND (KM) 313 309 306 333 316 246 143 94 67 -116 -200 -141 -122 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.2 81.2 81.1 81.4 81.6 82.4 83.7 85.5 87.7 89.9 91.9 93.3 94.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 11 10 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 96 96 96 92 91 93 85 80 70 0 19 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 21. 26. 31. 37. 40. 41. 38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 INVEST 10/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 94.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 INVEST 10/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 INVEST 10/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)