* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192010 10/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 55 65 71 78 78 73 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 55 65 71 78 61 38 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 34 38 43 49 58 67 61 38 31 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 14 13 8 5 2 6 1 6 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -6 -8 -7 -3 0 -2 1 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 206 212 193 187 196 185 187 136 279 118 225 260 291 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.2 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 155 155 152 149 147 151 153 151 138 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 141 140 140 138 138 138 143 145 141 125 117 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 58 54 52 56 53 56 56 59 58 60 59 53 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 15 16 16 15 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 43 48 47 55 52 60 70 90 88 69 29 20 11 200 MB DIV 44 51 61 59 58 65 35 45 62 86 43 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 292 284 277 298 312 249 195 123 100 153 -22 -120 -19 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.4 18.5 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.9 80.8 80.6 80.7 80.8 81.3 82.1 83.3 84.9 86.6 88.2 89.5 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 3 5 7 8 9 8 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 96 88 76 84 84 27 6 72 80 81 73 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 35. 41. 48. 48. 43. 36. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 NINETEEN 10/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 85.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 NINETEEN 10/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 NINETEEN 10/21/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)