* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 63 71 75 80 78 71 65 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 55 63 71 75 80 52 35 33 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 40 43 46 51 58 66 75 82 57 36 30 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 14 11 8 5 2 4 7 5 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -6 -7 -5 -2 -2 1 0 -2 3 9 -1 SHEAR DIR 205 170 181 183 188 169 154 259 243 205 205 233 290 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.9 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 153 151 150 148 148 153 153 147 134 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 141 140 139 137 137 136 140 146 143 135 122 116 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 9 7 8 7 9 8 11 10 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 55 54 55 57 62 55 62 56 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 14 15 16 15 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 45 54 55 58 71 89 88 61 57 25 9 -12 200 MB DIV 31 46 48 46 40 45 36 43 21 59 61 -7 -21 LAND (KM) 315 301 289 263 236 198 138 107 159 62 -61 -100 5 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.7 19.7 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.7 80.7 81.0 81.2 81.6 82.3 83.5 85.4 87.1 88.6 89.6 90.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 3 5 8 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 89 76 62 23 17 9 7 85 73 88 76 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 20. 28. 36. 40. 45. 43. 36. 30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)