* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 27 30 33 34 31 26 21 22 22 20 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 27 30 33 34 31 26 21 22 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 28 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 9 19 34 48 51 56 30 27 42 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 6 2 -1 6 1 9 1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 11 79 154 180 204 220 235 226 227 245 290 287 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 145 145 144 143 139 129 125 121 118 117 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 146 145 143 141 137 126 119 112 105 102 101 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.7 -55.0 -55.1 -55.3 -55.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 74 75 72 70 68 66 68 71 73 66 60 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 22 18 15 12 14 2 -6 1 -8 -15 -19 200 MB DIV 88 83 70 78 74 37 71 72 67 21 16 -34 -1 LAND (KM) 667 750 839 917 980 1120 1299 1525 1755 1927 2023 2106 2179 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 10.9 11.5 12.0 13.4 15.0 16.9 19.1 21.3 22.7 23.4 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.8 29.6 31.6 33.7 35.6 36.6 37.4 38.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 14 11 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 26 20 17 20 16 15 8 8 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. -1. -10. -20. -26. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 11. 6. 1. 2. 2. 0. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/21/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED