* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 60 64 66 68 63 57 52 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 54 60 64 66 68 41 32 31 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 50 54 58 63 69 42 32 35 SHEAR (KT) 7 13 15 14 10 9 4 7 5 12 17 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 174 187 187 213 214 230 232 260 212 227 237 265 285 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.0 28.2 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 155 154 152 149 145 150 155 151 138 130 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 139 141 141 140 137 135 142 146 140 126 117 113 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 8 8 7 10 9 10 11 13 700-500 MB RH 59 59 55 56 56 60 65 70 66 65 59 50 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 11 8 8 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 43 52 60 64 66 70 67 47 23 5 -19 -43 200 MB DIV 54 55 50 52 55 40 39 46 55 59 33 5 1 LAND (KM) 309 299 289 253 217 156 116 96 181 5 -116 -25 113 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.7 17.6 18.7 19.9 21.1 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.6 80.6 81.0 81.3 82.0 83.0 84.4 86.1 87.5 88.5 89.0 89.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 3 3 4 6 9 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 98 87 80 55 26 8 12 79 73 70 0 23 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 33. 28. 22. 17. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 69.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)