* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 41 40 35 28 24 23 22 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 41 40 35 28 24 23 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 36 39 36 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 15 19 34 45 52 55 23 34 44 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 3 2 3 8 4 3 7 2 5 4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 51 153 168 188 195 214 228 233 238 263 288 282 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 145 144 143 138 128 125 122 120 119 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 147 144 144 142 141 135 125 119 111 106 103 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -55.0 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 70 71 67 65 69 71 71 66 63 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 29 32 30 9 8 -3 -6 -2 -5 -9 -9 200 MB DIV 85 79 91 90 80 60 49 63 39 20 21 -12 20 LAND (KM) 763 840 922 983 1045 1171 1363 1610 1857 2011 2100 2169 2228 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.6 15.1 17.0 19.2 21.1 22.2 22.7 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.8 28.3 30.2 32.4 34.7 36.4 37.3 38.0 38.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 13 15 14 10 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 19 20 20 17 15 8 10 11 9 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 24. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -3. -13. -22. -27. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 16. 15. 10. 3. -1. -2. -3. -5. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/21/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED