* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 46 52 56 60 62 63 60 54 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 46 52 56 60 62 50 35 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 44 48 52 57 49 34 29 33 SHEAR (KT) 13 17 14 10 9 8 7 4 9 11 18 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -4 -2 4 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 187 192 212 214 217 223 236 276 215 235 242 271 268 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 153 154 151 148 147 153 154 149 135 129 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 140 141 139 137 138 144 144 137 122 114 111 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.5 -53.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 9 9 7 8 7 9 8 10 10 13 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 56 59 63 69 67 67 66 56 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 10 7 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 52 59 63 68 68 80 57 46 16 3 -26 -29 200 MB DIV 54 48 51 54 55 26 41 49 67 57 26 -5 17 LAND (KM) 309 289 268 234 202 149 109 133 101 -49 -138 -22 57 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.8 15.8 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.7 80.8 81.2 81.5 82.4 83.6 85.1 86.8 88.0 88.8 89.1 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 3 4 5 7 8 8 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 98 74 66 34 10 8 80 77 84 77 28 23 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 25. 19. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)