* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 36 39 41 39 33 27 24 22 20 19 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 36 39 41 39 33 27 24 22 20 19 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 35 37 35 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 4 10 14 19 36 47 54 45 27 38 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 7 2 3 8 2 2 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 148 176 190 197 203 230 229 231 238 277 285 275 260 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 144 144 142 134 126 123 120 118 118 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 145 143 143 140 130 122 115 108 104 103 104 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.2 -56.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 74 76 64 68 68 72 66 61 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 29 30 26 15 16 -5 2 -8 -17 -19 -13 200 MB DIV 75 80 87 79 59 75 33 71 19 15 -10 -16 14 LAND (KM) 833 906 979 1031 1093 1238 1441 1675 1885 1998 2077 2146 2229 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.8 11.3 12.0 12.7 14.2 15.9 17.8 20.1 21.7 22.6 22.9 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.6 27.4 29.0 30.9 32.9 35.1 36.3 37.1 37.8 38.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 14 12 8 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 20 20 22 18 18 9 7 10 9 9 10 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. -3. -12. -20. -24. -26. -29. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 14. 9. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)