* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * RICHARD AL192010 10/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 53 58 63 66 65 60 54 51 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 53 58 63 66 49 34 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 38 39 41 45 49 54 61 49 34 29 32 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 8 9 3 4 3 7 13 22 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 0 7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 186 207 219 220 215 206 247 198 208 229 258 270 270 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.8 27.9 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 153 154 153 147 149 152 154 147 134 129 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 140 141 142 138 139 143 143 135 120 113 111 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 9 7 9 8 9 10 12 11 700-500 MB RH 55 55 54 58 59 61 66 63 65 64 55 47 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 14 13 11 10 9 6 6 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 55 60 71 74 76 64 62 44 23 -14 -30 -51 200 MB DIV 37 52 62 58 41 46 19 55 81 59 8 -4 15 LAND (KM) 323 302 275 243 213 146 119 162 68 -66 -119 -12 40 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.3 16.9 17.3 17.9 18.9 20.3 21.3 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.6 80.8 81.2 81.5 82.8 84.3 85.7 87.2 88.2 88.7 88.7 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 5 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 101 88 51 13 9 23 81 73 85 77 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 28. 31. 30. 25. 19. 16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192010 RICHARD 10/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)