* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902010 10/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 12 17 24 29 38 44 40 30 22 25 29 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 8 10 6 4 3 5 10 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 252 226 225 219 228 240 238 242 239 237 257 255 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 143 141 138 134 127 122 118 114 110 110 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 140 138 135 128 120 113 107 100 95 95 94 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.8 -56.0 -55.4 -56.0 -56.1 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 76 73 68 71 71 67 60 56 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 10 8 6 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 9 2 10 15 -1 -19 -32 -32 -29 -26 -23 -7 -3 200 MB DIV 73 62 62 50 66 60 58 79 19 20 0 -1 -34 LAND (KM) 808 858 917 975 1042 1189 1353 1448 1503 1536 1573 1638 1692 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.8 14.6 16.3 18.2 20.2 22.2 23.6 24.3 24.6 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 24.2 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.2 28.5 29.7 30.9 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.7 33.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 9 6 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 15 13 13 14 10 9 8 5 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -13. -18. -21. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -17. -16. -15. -16. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902010 INVEST 10/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902010 INVEST 10/22/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)